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Why haven't you entered?
I'm at the trigger now but I haven't pulled the trigger because there's been no pullback to confirm conviction. The pattern needs to prove it can shake out weak hands before I step in — right now price just kissed the level without any real retest. RSI at 57 and MACD above signal are clean, but I want to see price pull back a few points to 155–157 range before I commit. That rejection and recovery would give me the confirmation this breakout has teeth.
What would make you enter?
A clean retest into the 155–157 zone with buyers still defending the breakout area. That would give me a tighter risk picture and the confirmation I'm waiting for.
What would kill the setup?
A break back through $146.00 — that's my invalidation line. If that goes, the breakout thesis is dead and I'd drop it.
Is this one of your best?
Yes — it's my top pick of the setups I'm watching. Highest conviction and still near its entry while the rest have already run.
How'd you rank this?
7.6/10 — strong structure above both moving averages with constructive MACD, but I'd rank it higher once I get the pullback I'm waiting for.
Can I still get in?
I'm up just over 1% and trailing my stop normally — at one day in, I'm barely past the breakout and the handle is just starting to play out. RSI at 65 reads hot, but MACD is still below signal, which tells me momentum hasn't fully confirmed yet. That's why I still like the structure: there's room for follow-through before the next leg higher.
Why are you still in it?
The cup-and-handle structure is still intact. I'm one day in with a tight stop cushion and the trend is doing the heavy lifting — nothing yet suggests buyers have lost control.
How's the risk right now?
Low for where I am — stop sits about 6% below with plenty of runway to target. MACD rolling over is a small flag, but the trend is intact and I'm trailing as planned.
What would invalidate this?
A move back through $945.89 — that's the line I defend. Below that, the handle thesis breaks.
What's the plan from here?
While price keeps making ground I'll trail the stop and let the target work. If momentum fades, I'll tighten up — but right now I'm letting the trend run.
How'd you rate this?
6.5/10 — takeable with low risk and still near entry. Not my highest-conviction open trade, but one of the freshest if the structure keeps holding.